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1994-08-13
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/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
12 AUGUST, 1994
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 AUGUST, 1994
----------------------------------------------------------
!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 224, 08/12/94
10.7 FLUX=080.8 90-AVG=079 SSN=058 BKI=3432 3233 BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=A6.9 FLU1=1.1E+06 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=3442 3333 PAI=016
BOU-DEV=025,044,029,017,033,012,028,021 DEV-AVG=026 NT SWF=00:000
XRAY-MAX= B8.2 @ 1140UT XRAY-MIN= A3.2 @ 0136UT XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0010UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1840UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.8%
PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1655UT PCA-MIN= -0.9DB @ 2125UT PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55233NT @ 0553UT BOUTF-MIN=55185NT @ 1758UT BOUTF-AVG=55216NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1948UT GOES6-MIN=N:-029NT@ 2246UT G6-AVG=+097,+031,-013
FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010
KFCST=4434 4333 3334 3222 27DAY-AP=026,017 27DAY-KP=5435 4333 4434 3233
WARNINGS=*SWF
ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 AUG 94 was 30.0.
The Full Kp Indices for 11 AUG 94 are: 3o 3- 3- 3- 3o 3- 3- 3-
The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 11 AUG 94 are: 17 14 11 13 16 12 11 13
Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 12 AUG is: 3.1E+07
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------
Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
However, new Region 7765 (S11E17), a magnetically complex
D-type group, emerged rapidly after 12/0000Z. It has produced 5
subfaint flares, some with low-level x-ray enhancements. Two
other H-type spot groups are visible on the disk. A dark
filament seen in He 1083 nm near N25E25 on 10 August was
considerably reduced on today's image. There were no reports of
eruptive limb activity.
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be
low based on a good probability of C-class x-ray flares from
new Region 7765. If rapid growth continues, there is a chance
of an isolated moderate x-ray flare.
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled for the
past 24 hours, although isolated quiet and active periods were
also observed. Moderate levels of energetic electron fluxes
were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at primarily unsettled levels with isolated
periods of both quiet and active conditions. Energetic electron
fluxes are expected to decrease toward normal background values.
Event probabilities 13 aug-15 aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 aug-15 aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 15/15/05
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01
HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all but
the high latitude auroral regions where a few periods of
below-normal propagation were observed due to enhanced levels
of geomagnetic and auroral activity. Near-normal and improving
propagation is expected to continue over the next 3 days. If
Region 7765 continues to evolve, daylit paths may experience
isolated periods of short-wave fadeouts. Slightly enhanced
ionizing radiation from this new active region may also
gradually enhance MUFs over the next week.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================
REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z AUGUST
---------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE
7762 N04W67 116 0100 HAX 02 004 ALPHA
7764 S07E54 355 0050 HSX 01 001 ALPHA
7765 S11E16 033 0070 DAI 07 023 BETA-GAMMA
7763 S12W44 093 PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 AUGUST TO 15 AUGUST
NMBR LAT LO
NONE
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 AUGUST, 1994
-----------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 AUGUST, 1994
---------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV
NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN
96 N05W30 S07W46 N28W67 N28W67 098 ISO POS 019 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- ---------
11 Aug: 0118 0122 0126 B1.2
1844 1847 1850 SF 7764 S05E73
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%)
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------
Region 7764: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (50.0)
Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (50.0)
Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------
Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations
------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ ---------------------------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
NOTES:
All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max,
and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After.
All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
III = Type III Sweep
IV = Type IV Sweep
V = Type V Sweep
Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
Loop = Loop Prominence System,
Spray = Limb Spray,
Surge = Bright Limb Surge,
EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
** End of Daily Report **